Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
In this week's contest, Josh Allen is expected by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 6th-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 5.2.
Josh Allen's running effectiveness (6.50 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (89th percentile among QBs).
Josh Allen has been one of the leading QBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an exceptional 2.86 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to be the 3rd-least run-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 32.4% run rate.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen has been a less important option in his offense's run game this season (15.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (27.2%).
As it relates to run support (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
Josh Allen's 22.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a a substantial decrease in his running ability over last season's 48.0 mark.

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