Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to accumulate 6.7 carries in this contest, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
The model projects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's run game in this week's contest (28.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (17.9% in games he has played).
Josh Allen has generated 45.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league when it comes to QBs (92nd percentile).
Josh Allen's rushing effectiveness (7.14 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (77th percentile when it comes to QBs).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.0 plays per game.
The Bills O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-fewest yards in football (just 107 per game) vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season.

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