Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this week's game, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projections to accrue the 5th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 5.6.
This year, the strong Chiefs run defense has given up a paltry 4.63 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 23rd-lowest rate in football.
The Chiefs safeties profile as the 29th-worst safety corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Josh Allen has been a less important option in his offense's ground game this year (20.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (27.2%).
The Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
Josh Allen's 28.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year illustrates a meaningful diminishment in his running talent over last year's 48.0 mark.

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