Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
This week, Josh Allen is forecasted by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 2nd-most carries among all QBs with 6.9.
While Josh Allen has accounted for 20.8% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Buffalo's run game in this game at 27.9%.
This year, the deficient Broncos run defense has conceded a staggering 156.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the worst in the NFL last year.
Josh Allen's 25.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season signifies a meaningful diminishment in his rushing ability over last season's 48.0 rate.
Josh Allen's running effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling a mere 5.50 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.24 figure last year.

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