Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to accrue 7.3 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
Josh Allen isn't afraid to call his own number, accounting for 27.2% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 93rd percentile among QBs.
Josh Allen has picked up 48.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).
Josh Allen's running effectiveness (7.24 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (91st percentile among QBs).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

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