Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to earn 8.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (33.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).
Josh Allen has rushed for substantially more yards per game (46.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The New York Jets defense owns the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.02 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best DT corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

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