Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to total 8.4 carries in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (34.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played).
Josh Allen has rushed for a lot more yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (40.0).
Josh Allen's ground effectiveness (6.76 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (84th percentile among quarterbacks).

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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