Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to earn 6.4 carries in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (26.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.9% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the least yards in football (just 86 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends project as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.