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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to garner 5.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (27.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).

Josh Allen has generated 40.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among QBs (95th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.

The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the 4th-best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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