Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-120/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to total 7.8 carries this week, on average: the least of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (29.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 32.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 94 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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