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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+109/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to total 7.6 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (29.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).

Josh Allen has run for a lot more yards per game (49.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.0% run rate.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

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