Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to total 6.5 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (29.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.5% in games he has played).
Josh Allen has run for a lot more yards per game (51.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).
Josh Allen's running efficiency (7.50 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (95th percentile among QBs).
Josh Allen has been among the top quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.43 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

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