Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to notch 8.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (31.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.2% in games he has played).
Josh Allen has run for a lot more yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (40.0).
Josh Allen's running efficiency (7.46 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (94th percentile among QBs).

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 29.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-least yards in football (just 107 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

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