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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to earn 7.2 rush attempts this week, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (29.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.6% in games he has played).

Josh Allen has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (40.0).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 105 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.

The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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