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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to notch 7.2 carries in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (29.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.8% in games he has played).

Josh Allen has run for substantially more yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (40.0).

Josh Allen's rushing effectiveness has been refined this year, totaling 7.88 yards-per-carry vs a measly 6.98 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

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