Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-140/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to total 5.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (25.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.9% in games he has played).
Josh Allen has picked up 40.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among quarterbacks (94th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams defense owns the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.00 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.