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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+146/-206).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +183 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +146.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Josh Allen has rushed for 0.29 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (42.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.

The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best DT corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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