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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+156/-221).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +169 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Josh Allen has run for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).

Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.

The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 35.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be much less involved in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (44.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.5% in games he has played).

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