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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+153/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -206 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.

Josh Allen has rushed for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among quarterbacks (94th percentile).

The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.5% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (37.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.3% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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