Josh Allen Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+173/-251).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +186 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Josh Allen has run for 0.27 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among quarterbacks (95th percentile).
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be much less involved in his team's running game near the goal line this week (35.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.1% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends project as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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