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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+139/-193).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +143 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +139.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.3 plays per game.

Josh Allen isn't afraid to call his own number near the goal line, accounting for 26.2% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries since the start of last season (93rd percentile among quarterbacks).

Josh Allen has rushed for 0.30 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among QBs (94th percentile).

The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing squads have run for the 10th-least TDs in the league (0.83 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.

The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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