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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Josh Allen isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 26.8% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (97th percentile among QBs).

Josh Allen has rushed for 0.38 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among QBs (91st percentile).

The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 38.6% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.

The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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