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Josh Allen
NFL · Player Props
Josh Allen
QB · Buffalo Bills
Rushing TD
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022 Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:11 AM UTC
NFL Props Josh Allen Rushing TD

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +136.

Favors Over
  • The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Josh Allen isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 26.8% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (97th percentile among QBs).
  • Josh Allen has rushed for 0.38 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among QBs (91st percentile).
  • The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 38.6% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
  • The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
  • The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
  • The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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