Josh Allen Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-261).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -238 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -261.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Josh Allen isn't afraid to run the ball near the end zone, accounting for 25.9% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (97th percentile among QBs).
Josh Allen has rushed for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 38.8% red zone run rate.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 8th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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