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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-251).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -251.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.

Josh Allen isn't afraid to be involved in the run game near the end zone, accounting for 29.1% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (97th percentile among quarterbacks).

Josh Allen has rushed for 0.36 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 38.2% red zone run rate.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-least touchdowns in football (0.36 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense this year.

The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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