Josh Allen Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:16 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-193).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Josh Allen isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the end zone, accounting for 28.6% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (97th percentile among QBs).
Josh Allen has run for 0.30 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most TDs in football (1.60 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 38.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.

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