Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 271.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to attempt 38.0 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
Josh Allen has been among the leading QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 269.0 yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Josh Allen's passing precision has been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 64.2% to 73.7%.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.0 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.50 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's unit has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.

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