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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 245.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 243.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 245.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

In this week's game, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projection model to total the 10th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.4.

The Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Josh Allen profiles as one of the best QBs in football this year, averaging a stellar 255.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

With an outstanding 7.54 adjusted yards-per-target (83rd percentile) this year, Josh Allen has been as one of the most efficient passers in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 3 points.

To the extent of a defense's influence on pace, at 28.47 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most sluggish in the league (in a neutral context) right now.

The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

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