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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 240.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 238.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 240.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Josh Allen rates as one of the best passers in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 263.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Josh Allen's throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.2% to 67.7%.

Josh Allen profiles as one of the most effective quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a stellar 7.71 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 86th percentile.

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, New England's safety corps has been terrible this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this game.

The model projects the Bills to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.62 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The model projects Josh Allen to throw 31.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.

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