Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 262.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
In this game, Josh Allen is projected by the model to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.4.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen comes in as one of the leading QBs in football this year, averaging an outstanding 281.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
Josh Allen's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a remarkable gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.2% rate.

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.
This year, the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up a paltry 210.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.18 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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