Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 273.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.7 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Josh Allen has passed for many more yards per game (326.0) this season than he did last season (249.0).

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the least yards in the league (just 192.0 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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