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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 277.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 276.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 277.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 71.0% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 37.4 passes in this game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.

The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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