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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 215.5 (+116/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 221.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 215.5 @ -151.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.
  • Josh Allen has attempted 38.1 throws per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.
  • Josh Allen has been among the leading passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 279.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
  • Josh Allen has been among the most effective passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 7.66 yards-per-target while checking in at the 78th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
  • The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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