Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 266.5 (+105/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 267.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 266.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 7th-least yards in football (just 214.0 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.2%).
The New England Patriots defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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