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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Interceptions
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.

In this game, Josh Allen is expected by the projections to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5.

The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Josh Allen has registered 1.04 interceptions per game this year, checking in at the 18th percentile when it comes to QBs.

New England's defense ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year when it comes to producing interceptions, accumulating a lowly 0.35 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

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