Josh Allen Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Completions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Josh Allen has attempted 37.1 passes per game this year, grading out in the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen's throwing accuracy has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.2% to 72.8%.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Cincinnati's safety corps has been terrible this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Bengals defense this year (68.0% Adjusted Completion%).

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