Josh Allen Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Completions

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-151/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Bills.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen's throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.2% to 72.2%.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's unit has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

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