Josh Allen Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Completions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
In this game, Josh Allen is expected by the projections to wind up with the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Josh Allen's 72.3% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a an impressive boost in his passing precision over last season's 64.2% rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Patriots defense this year (74.5% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

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