Josh Allen Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Completions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
In this game, Josh Allen is projected by the model to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.4.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a remarkable gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.2% rate.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.

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