Josh Allen Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Completions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 36.3 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

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