Josh Allen Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Completions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills O-line has given their quarterback 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.9 passes this week, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.