Josh Allen Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Completions

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 40.3 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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