Josh Allen Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
In this week's game, Josh Allen is expected by the model to total the 5th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 7.5.
While Josh Allen has earned 16.5% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's rushing attack in this game at 29.9%.
Jaguars defensive tackles profile as the 9th-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The model projects the Bills as the 9th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year at blocking for rushers.

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