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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Carries
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to earn 8.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (33.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.

The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best DT corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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