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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Carries
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to total 7.6 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (29.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.0% run rate.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

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