Josh Allen Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to total 6.5 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (29.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.5% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 7th-best group of safeties in the league this year with their run defense.

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