Josh Allen Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to accumulate 8.8 carries in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (33.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.9% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 29.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.

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