Josh Allen Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -149 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to accumulate 7.9 rush attempts this week, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 29.4% run rate.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 8th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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