Jordan Mason Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jordan Mason

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Mason

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Mason Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 14.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Jordan Mason's ground efficiency (5.93 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (95th percentile among RBs).
Jordan Mason has been among the leading RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 4.09 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
Jordan Mason has played on 13.2% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 25th percentile among running backs.

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