My Account Log Out

reorder

Jordan Mason

Jordan Mason Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jordan Mason Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+397/-843).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -711 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -843.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 47.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.58 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

More Jordan Mason Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™