Jordan Mason Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Jordan Mason

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 10, 2022 9:51 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Mason Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+397/-843).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -711 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -843.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 47.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.58 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.