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Jordan Love

Jordan Love TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 4th-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.8% red zone pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.

The leading projections forecast Jordan Love to attempt 36.9 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most out of all QBs.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.6 per game) this year.

The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Lions defense this year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has given up a meager 0.86 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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